Memorandum

(The writer of the memorandum is a political activist from China. After negotiation between the U.S. government and the Chinese government, he was released and arrived in the United States on medical reason on January 24, 2003.) (boxun.com)

By Fang Jue

January 5th, 2005

Prelude:Chinese New Leader's Attitude toward US

Jiang Zemin resigned the Chairman of Military Commission of the Central Committee of Chinese Communist Party in September 2004, finished his long decisive influence to China's foreign policy, three years earlier than it was expected. The new US Administration and the new US Congress might need to think about this question when making China policy:What are the new elements in the attitude from China's new leaders toward US?

There are two goals of the Chinese new leaders' foreign policy:one is to expand the growth momentum for China as the new world power, the other one is to maintain the longevity of the communist regime in China. To accomplish these goals, Chinese new leaders have some actual strength to negotiate with US. This is the biggest difference between them and the past generations of leaders such as Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin.

None of the China's new leaders had Western educational background. Nor they ever lived or worked in Western society. They grew up in the communist system and were educated by the communist ideology. Their orthodox values and "red" life experience will leave some mark on their foreign policy. They might not want to just put their emphasis on US, which the "preacher for democracy and freedom" and the "hegemony of world leader". They would also lay their eyes on the Asia-Pacific and European countries, maybe even the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

Therefore, US would have to deal with China based on its strength and interests in the future than in the past.

Part one:Nuclear Crisis of North Korea

The North Korean regime stubbornly believes, having the nuclear weapon can effectively safeguard the dictatorship, and the nuclear weapon can ensure a more powerful international position.

The Chinese regime also cleverly understands, if its ally North Korea possesses nuclear weapon, it could counterbalance US and Japan, and raise China's strategic position.

Therefore, the key for US to resolve the North Korea nuclear crisis is not to tip the scales toward North Korea or its main supporter China. There are two effective ways to maneuver the situation:one is to apply economic sanctions against North Korea; the other one is to prepare for to destroy North Korea's nuclear development with military power.

Before Iraq's situation becomes stable and Iraqi democratic government be established, US might have to maintain current six-party talks on North Korea nuclear crisis. Very likely, North Korea would return to the table soon. But this is not the signal that North Korea and China are ready for substantive negotiation to resolve the issue. It is just the new beginning of them to delay the process and haggle with US.

After 2005, If US focus moves out of Iraq, it needs to adjust appropriately its means of dealing with the North Korea nuclear crisis.

At the first step, US could ask UN Security Council to discuss the North Korea's nuclear problem. But any successful sanction against North Korea depends on China's active participation. The possibility for China's participation in the sanction is nearly zero. Even if China shows some symbolic gesture for the sanction on the side, it may increase its economic support to North Korea on other side. Therefore, the sanction might put a lot of economic pressure, social pressure and psychological pressure on North Korea; it would not force North Korea to give up its nuclear development.

While US is working on the sanction against North Korea, it also should develop a military plan that could destroy North Korea's nuclear facilities fast and completely. The high stakes from the North Korea regime are that US would not attack North Korea's nuclear facilities due to its concern for the U.S.-China relationship. US should send a strong and firm signal to North Korea through its well prepared military position, witch destroy North Korea's nuclear facilities is the last and realistic choice for US.

Maybe US think the most important question should be whether China would give North Korea military support to resist US attack, consequently cause an acute conflict between US and China.

The Chinese new leaders have enough rationality. If they see US's determination and military reserve to destroy North Korea's nuclear plan, they would realize nothing could save the fate of nuclear development of North Korea. Only at the last minute, China would cut its economic support to North Korea substantially, and would force North Korea to give up nuclear development, thereby save North Korea from US's attack, and avoid its acute conflict with US over the North Korea problem. Only when North Korea is facing strong US military threat and lack of China support, would it understand the hopelessness for its nuclear development and give up. In summary, the peaceful resolution for the North Korea nuclear crisis depends on whether US could make timely and ample military preparation.

Part two:Taiwan Issue

The Taiwanese government of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party intends to amend the constitution between 2006 and 2008. This will cause strong opposition from the mainland government. The manifestation will be the increasing military deterrence from China to Taiwan.

Pro-independence political force in Taiwan estimates China does not have the military strength to confront US. Therefore China dares not to use military force to curb Taiwan independence. Such political force might be dangerously testing the bottom line of China and US on Taiwan issue.

Thus, US ought to insist restriction on both sides of Taiwan Strait. It stressed the US principle of "oppose any efforts by either side to unilaterally alter the status quo". No matter which side tries to challenge the principle, US should apply strong diplomatic, economic or military action to stop it. This is the cornerstone to maintain the strategic stability for the Asia-Pacific region.

As long as Taiwanese government does not announce formally Taiwan independence, China will not take the initiative to attack Taiwan. Chinese new leaders cares about their regime stability, China's further economic growth, and China becomes a world power rather than "liberate Taiwan". Chinese regime and its military have known for a long time that if they attack Taiwan without a good reason, such as Taiwan announces its independence, China will stuck in an un-winnable war with US.

If only US government insists on the current Taiwan policy, Taiwan Strait will remain peaceful. Because of the intensified political and diplomatic contradictions between China and Taiwan, US seek to acquire any new framework to resolve Taiwan issue may be unrealistic.

Part three:Weapon Proliferation

China is one of the major sources of weapon proliferation in the world of today.

US might have not realized the root of the problem:Weapon proliferation is an important diplomatic and military policy for China. Through the proliferation of weapons and related technologies, equipment and materials, China seeks international allies, establishes bilateral or multilateral relationship to counterbalance US, and heightens its diplomatic and strategic position. The Chinese companies that do weapon proliferation are usually state-owned enterprises. They are under tight control of the government or the military. If US view China's proliferation behavior as commercial activities or some government's mismanagement, US could not stop China's weapon proliferation effectively.

US may have new conditions to prevent China's weapon proliferation in the next few years. The falling of the former Iraqi regime; Libya's giving up pursuit of the weapon of mass destruction; the international concern, investigation and restriction for Iran, Syria and Pakistan's weapon proliferation, all shrink the space for China's weapon proliferation and reduce the possible interests from proliferation. The new US government should utilize these conditions, to negotiate with China at a higher level to prevent China's weapon proliferation. US should state more clearly that the weapon proliferation is one of the basic issues for the U.S.-China relationship. This would urge Chinese new leaders to show some substantive action toward weapon proliferation prevention.

US should use serious negotiation and stringent sanction together, to restrict china's weapon proliferation more effectively. For instance, the current sanction against companies that involve in weapon proliferation is only two years. This seems to be too short. Some of the Chinese companies restart to do proliferation after the sanction is expired. Some of them continue their proliferation even during the sanction. US should consider extending the duration of sanction. Another example, the current sanction policy only applies to companies that have proliferation behavior. But those companies involves in the proliferation in China are not private companies. US should consider sanctions including the governmental or military agencies that in charge of those companies. US could deny visa entry to the States for officers from these official agencies for a period of time, and/or suspend any kind of exchange and cooperation between US and these Chinese agencies.

Part four:the Countries of Concern

China is trying to involve in some sensitive matters of "the countries of concern", as if this is an effort of its diversity of diplomacy.

In November 2004, China signed tens of billion dollars natural gas contract with Iran. At the same time, China's Foreign Minister visited Iran and discussed Iran's nuclear development with the extremist government. Iran's nuclear development has been criticizing by US. Not long ago, in order to protect its oil interests and consolidate its "bridge tower" in Africa, China opposed US's bill to United Nations to against Sudanese government who is responsible for the severe human rights violation in South Sudan. China has been supporting the military dictatorship of Burma publicly and secretly, in order to save a "chessman" that would counterbalance the US influence in Southeast Asia. These are just a few examples. In the world of today, such "the countries of concern" may emerge in an endless stream. This will provide a unique dimension for China's diplomatic activities.

China's active involvement in "the countries of concern" complicates management of these sensitive matters. It often blocks the problem solving for these countries. This is because China never plays the game according to international standards and rules. It only plays according to its interests and how to counterbalance US. Therefore, US should not positively invite China to involve in problem solving for "the countries of concern" in general. If possible, US should separate Chinese matter from the matters of "the countries of concern" to prevent China uses these counties as chips in bargaining with US. In the cases that US could not avoid China's involvement, US should try hard to take the leading role in problem solving.

Part five:Economic and Trade Disputes

It is necessary for US to set some import quota and increase some import tax for the growing cheap goods from China. This may be the only way to protect US domestic manufacturing industry and to reduce the huge trade deficit with China.

US could force China to open more market for US by setting import quota and increasing import tax on certain goods from China. China hopes US eases up the limitation on high tech and weapon export to China. But due to the close connection between high tech, weapon and military development, US should maintain the current policy to limit high tech and weapon export to China. US should focus on China opening more of its markets for US agricultural products, raw materials, and manufactured goods.

US should also continuously ask China to ease up control on exchange rate. Although China is not willing to raise the exchange rate of RMB (Ren Min Bi) to US dollar dramatically, US could work together with European Union and International Monetary Fund to urge China raise the exchange rate step by step, to make the exchange rate of RMB closer to market value.

Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, it has gotten one-sided benefit from the Permanent Normal Trade Relationship. This must redress the balance.

Part six: Human Rights and Political Progress

Since 1994, the U.S.-China human rights dialogue has been focused on releasing a few dissidents. The new US government should pay more attention in ordinary Chinese's basic rights while consciously care about dissidents, and then to promote China's political progress.

China's highest legislature ratified the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights in 2001. But China never did any thing to follow the rules in the Covenant. US government should urge China to make plans in how to perform the Covenant, and establish international supervision toward the implementation of the Covenant in China.

In 1998, China signed the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. China has never submitted any bill on the Covenant to its highest legislature. US ought to urge China to ratify the Covenant and follow the Covenant in action. In 2003 and 2004, China's new President Hu Jintao expressed the willingness to ratify the Covenant twice to the President of a Western state. US should try to make this diplomatic expression becomes political reality.

The generation of Chinese leaders is not likely to go forward with political reform toward democracy. But from the 17th Party Congress in 2007 and the 11th National People's Congress in 2008, some new leaders who were born in the 1950s and have some world vision and reform mentality will get into the Political Bureau and the State Council. This will partially change the political arena in Chinese leadership. And then the future top leaders may succeed the current top leaders at the 18th Party Congress in 2012 and the 12th National People's Congress in 2013. If US could influence China in improving general human rights and pushing political progress for the next four years, it would help the growth of China's civil society, China's political change, and China is closer to the mainstream of the modern world.

END (boxun.com)