The riddle of Maung Aye
(Nov. 25, 2004)The first question that was posed by Burma's eastern giant neighbor following the 18 October "coup", as reported by S.H.A.N., was, "who's behind (Vice Senior General) Maung Aye, Indians or the Americans?"
The 26 October issue of Bangkok Post also reported Gen Maung Aye had given an ultimatum to Wa to stop producing drugs, reduce its forces and rotate soldiers deployed at all its outposts every year. (boxun.com)
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The Oslo-based Democratic Voice of Burma followed on 8 November with a report that Maung Aye was personally directing operations in Shan State. U Thaung, veteran Burmese journalist, also wrote in the November issue of New Era Journal, Burma Army officers are waiting for Maung Aye to take the lead in "sanitizing" the military.
Last but to least, some friends from the West are counselling the Opposition not to rush headlong into an unfriendly attitude towards the new leadership setup that it is just old wine in a new bottle. "The demise of Khun Nyunt can be seen as an opportunity to deal directly with the Army, who may now feel less threatened as they are in control," says one who has long been associated with the Opposition. Another one was more succinct: "Let us give Maung Aye a chance."Most if not all those S.H.A.N. have quoted appear to think that Maung Aye is the man behind the latest upheaval in Burma, that he rules though notreigns.
A rather "grey" picture of him was also painted by the Irrawaddy in its October issue in this way: Maung Aye is tipped to take over the junta if Than Shwe steps down. But some speculate that he will meet the same fate as Khin Nyunt and that Gen Thura Shwe Mann would become army chief and SPDC deputy chairman.
We hear: Aung San Suu Kyi has reportedly called Maung Aye the most charismatic of Burma¡¯s top brass. His friendliness toward Suu Kyi when the two last dined together was described as unusual. Army sources have said Maung Aye wants to keep the army clear of politics. He has been reported to have been in poor health for several years.
Some follow-ups to the Khin Nyunt ouster seem to support the assumption that he is in charge, especially the fact that the Wa, whatever conciliatory gestures they are putting across, have been striving to keep their troops ready for battle since October.
However, the other fact that he is rarely seen in public these days seems to discourage the assumption that he is the man in charge. The day-to-day affairs, in all appearance, are in the hands of Gen Shwe Mann, Joint Chief of Staff, and Lt-Gen Soe Win, Prime Minister. "Than Shwe went to India just a week after Khin Nyunt's dismissal for nearly a whole week," said an informed source in Rangoon, "because he knew everything was in the good hands of Shwe Mann."
Still the new prime minister defers to Maung Aye at least in public. In his address to businessmen in Rangoon on 24 October he said that the government "is carrying out its duties" "under the leadership and guidance of the Head of State" Senior General Than Shwe and "united position" "collective responsibility, collective discussion and collective decisions of the Vice Chairman and Vice Senior General Maung Aye and members of the State Peace and Development Council."
Thus, as politics of Burma goes, it may be a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the data, but by the time you have them all, everything may again be too late.
(Boxun received S.H.A.N News published by Burma's Chinese)
(boxun.com)
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