Burma's Prison Release May Take one to More Weeks
(Nov. 22, 2004)
Only a few hundred of 4,000 prisoners, including political dissidents, that Myanmar has vowed to free have been released and it could take at least a week for them all to leave jail, the opposition said. (boxun.com)
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In a surprise decision, Mynamar's military rulers ordered Thursday the release of 3,937 people it admitted may have been wrongly imprisoned by a now-dissolved military intelligence unit.
Among them was the famed leader of massive student protests in 1988, Min Ko Naing, the country's number two political prisoner after opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) head Aung San Suu Kyi.
Min Ko Naing, one of the most prominent figures to emerge from the pro-democracy protests which were brutally crushed by Myanmar troops, was freed late Friday.
About two dozen pro-democracy figures, including at least 10 members of the NLD, have also been freed, NLD sources and others monitoring the releases said.
But only about 700 inmates in total are believed to have left jail, the sources said. NLD spokesman U Lwin said the number was half that, or fewer.
"This could take at least a week or more," U Lwin told AFP by telephone on Sunday, adding that no-one was being released at the weekend and excessive red tape could be slowing the process.
"They have to sort out the entire 4,000 people, and that may take time," he said.
Authorities have made no mention of exactly who is being freed. Those who have been released include the small number of political prisoners as well as several petty criminals and others who said they were serving terms of five or seven years for robbery or assault.
The NLD's executive committee on Saturday said the release of so many people including political and criminal prisoners "lends dignity to the nation".
The NLD also reiterated its call for the release of Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, currently 19 months into her third stint of house arrest, and the 1,180 of its members NLD sources say are still behind bars.
Amnesty International says there are about 1,350 political prisoners in Myanmar, including NLD members and others.
Analysts and diplomats cautioned there was little to suggest the generals were prepared to release Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained since a clash between her supporters and a junta-backed mob in northern Myanmar last year.
The call for her freedom was echoed at the weekend by the United States, Britain and the United Nations (news - web sites), all of whom have been deeply critical of Yangon's human rights record and failure to hand power to the NLD, which won a 1990 election by a landslide.
U Lwin said however he was optimistic the government intended to restart a dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi that collapsed last year, as it aims to reconvene a constitutional convention that is the first step in its pledged "road map" to democracy.
"We think they will start talking with the opposition, perhaps before the start of the convention," U Lwin said.
Aung San Suu Kyi's release was a primary condition laid down by the NLD for its participation in the national convention, which is in recess.
She has said she would refuse offers of freedom until other political prisoners were released.
Analysts and critics of Yangon said its announcement of the mass prisoner relase could serve as a barometer for the government's willingness to engage in democratic reforms that the international community has pressed it to adopt.
ALTSEAN-BURMA ON PRISONER RELEASES IN BURMA
Friday, Nov 19: This week's mass release of prisoners in Burma, including such high profile political prisoners as Min Ko Naing have become a source of great joy and relief for those supporting human rights and democracy in Burma.
Student leader Min Ko Naing, detained in solitary confinement for most of the past 15 years, was considered to be "unreleaseable"; it was previously expected that he would be one of the last prisoners to be let out of jail.
Over the next few days, activists, diplomats and the media will be in a better position to ascertain how many political prisoners have been released from jail, and if any and what conditions are attached to these releases.
Of course, the immediate questions arising from this development are "WHY?" and "WHAT NEXT"
WHY:
INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE:
Khin Nyunt's ouster resulted in a wave of concern and pressure from the international community, notably Asean and China.
* China and Singapore had quietly expressed displeasure at the setbacks implied by the ouster.
* The Indonesian Foreign Minister's visit to Rangoon last week would have flagged Asean's fast-diminishing patience with the regime. Regional pressure has targeted Burma's chairing of Asean, scheduled to occur in mid-2006, and governments have not ruled out skipping Burma for the role.
* The ILO has made moves to reactivate Article 33 of the 2000 resolution on Myanmar which could lead to far-ranging sanctions against the regime. Such sanctions would be binding on all members.
* The upcoming Asean Parliamentarians' Workshop on Myanmar in Kuala Lumpur Nov 26-28, followed by the Asean Summit in Vientiane Nov 29-30, would discuss whether Burma should be disqualified from chairing Asean in 2006.The regime seems to have shrunk its sphere of international interaction to Asean, China, India and Pakistan. Therefore, threats to their standing with these states would be taken very seriously.
* The regime may be hoping that releases of prisoners would ease international pressure and convince the international community to support its roadmap to democracy.
INTERNAL PRESSURE:
The hardliners may have released the prisoners because they:
* Feel compelled to 'prove' that they can do a better job than Gen. Khin Nyunt.
* Want to make Khin Nyunt and his associates the scapegoats for Burma's loss of international and domestic credibility.
* Think that such a move would shore up the confidence of the local business community, which took a severe beating in the wake of the Khin Nyunt purge.
* Need to free up space in jails for a new round of political prisoners including, possibly, Gen Khin Nyunt and his associates.
WHAT NEXT?
Pressure must be maintained to ensure that the significant step implied by these releases actually lead to:
* The unconditional release of all political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo.
* A cessation of military hostilities in ethnic and border areas. While pro-democracy activists, especially prisoners whose prison terms have almost been fully served, have been released, ethnic nationality groups may still be extremely vulnerable to military attack in the near future.
* Commencement political dialogue and the observance of conditions that are conducive to the inclusion and democratic participation of the NLD and political parties in all aspects of the roadmap.
* Strengthening the rule of law and the capacity of civil and legal institutions to protect and uphold human rights.
CONCLUSION:
It is clear pressure has worked. The question is whether the Asian region will have the staying power to ensure that pressure can maintain the momentum launched by these recent releases.
The key points of leverage that must be exploited are:
LEGITIMACY: The leadership are hungry for international recognition and acknowledgement to justify the purge of Khin Nyunt, who was more recognisable and acceptable to the international community. Hence, any threats to such legitimacy could be effective in securing political reforms. A key concern is the chairing of Asean in 2006.
MONEY: The economic pie has been shrinking due to sanctions, hence intensifying business competition between army and military factions - one of the key factors leading to the purge. Increased economic pressure would be a source of grave concern for the new leaders.
MILITARY PRESTIGE: As hardline traditionalists, they care deeply about military prestige therefore military cooperation and access to equipment, including prestige acquisitions are definitely important.
FAMILY: Tightening visa bans on military leaders and their families are beginning to create intra-family pressures, particularly for young people wanting to flee the impoverished education system for colleges and career opportunities in Europe and North America.
(Boxun Recieved News of Shan-EU published by Burma's Chinese)
(boxun.com)
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