The following is the main content from the interview video. (boxun.com)

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Host: Headed by Hu Jingtao, the fourth generation of the leadership took over power last November. Since then, the international community has been paying close attention to their orientation. We would like Mr. Fang Jue to express his view on that. But before that, we will talk about an important piece of news first.

Yesterday (November 26, 2003), U.S.-based Chinese human rights activist Gao Zhan pleaded guilty to the Federal Court. She illegally exported 80 microprocessors to two procurement agencies of the Chinese government that could be used in military systems. Gao was sentenced to 10 year's imprisonment by the Chinese government in 2001 during her visit to China. Her charge was "espionage for Taiwan." After President Bush and State Secretary Powel's negotiation with Jiang Zemin and the Chinese government, Gao was deported to the United States just a few days after sentencing on "medical terms." It is really shocking news that Gao was selling highly sensitive technology to China illegally.

Fang Jue: I don't think Gao Zhan's incident is a surprise at all. In fact, there are more than one "democratic activists" maintained secret relationship with the Chinese government, Chinese security organ and Chinese military. They not only sell technical information, but also political information. Gao Zhan's incident is only the tip of an iceberg. Year later, there might be more of this kind of things happen.

Host: When Hu Jingtao took over power last year, many westerners were not sure about his political idea and policy direction. There was a popular joke then, "Who is Hu?"

Fang Jue: Actually, Hu Jingtao's political image is clear all along. Westerner thought they weren't sure only because some of them still hold unrealistic hope upon him. Back in 1965, Mr. Hu was a "red expert" graduate from Qinghua University. He was kept in school as a "political thoughts assistant" after graduation. This job is to assist students in align with the Chinese Communist Party ideologically. In his nearly forty years of working career, he always followed to the party, diligently serviced the party. He had never publicly said any think that disagrees with the party. What's more, he had never participated in any independent political activities. Mr. Hu's image is very clear. I don't understand why westerners would ask "Who is Hu?"

Host: Early this year, in dealing with major issues such as SARS, Hu Jingtao and Wen Jiabao appear to handle differently that the third generation of leadership headed by Jiang Zemin.

Fang Jue: President Hu and Premier Wen's work style is indeed different than Jiang Zemin, Li Peng and Zhu Rongji. They appear to be more close to the people. But such closeness has very limited reform meaning. Using SARS as example, Chinese people and the international community were hoping the new leaders would start China's freedom of press and political reform from SARS crisis. But Hu and Wen only treated SARS as the obstacles towards China's economic development and damages of China's international image. They only dealt with SARS technically and completely ignored the freedom of press and political reform.

Host: Do you think Hu Jingtao does not have such political reform vision?

Fang Jue: Hu never has such idea of political reform. I think, during his possible ten years of wielding power, he will not initiate real political reform, unless something dramatically happens. One possible dramatic thing is the wave of democracy and freedom soared globally. This will push Chinese leaders to think about political reform without choice. Another possible dramatic thing is, there are social unrests and political conflicts emerged in a national scale in China. This will force the Chinese leaders to face political reform. Of cause, Hu Jiangtao would not want to see such things happen.

Host: Not long ago, the Chinese Communist Party has a "three not" rules for the Chinese people. That is, not to discuss constitution amendment; not to discuss political reform and not to discuss re-evaluate June 4th incident of 1989. Some people guess the "three not"is an opinion of Jiang Zemin.

Fang Jue: The so called" three not" rules is a result of the fourth generation of leaders. It is not an individual decision of Jiang Zemin. Not only Jiang Zemin does not want the Chinese people to publicly discuss those major political issues, nor do the fourth generation of leaders.

For some times, some people overestimated the political difference between Hu Jingtao and Jiang Zemin. But these people never find any major examples of such difference.

Audience from Jiangsu: Hu Jingtao is a remarkable person. During his ten years of being the member of political bureau standing committee from 1992 to 2002, he stayed there and eventually became the top leader of China, not liking Liu Shaoqi, Lin Biao, Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang whom were unsuccessful.

Fang Jue: I think we have to give second thought about the word "remarkable". A member of political bureau standing committee did not give any reform idea or involve in carry out reform for as long as ten years. On the contrary, he silently accepts the third generation's conservative way and safeguards Jiang Zemin's core position. He might not be so "remarkable".

Audience from Anhui: When Hu Jingtao just stepped on the stage, I also have some hope for him, thinking China might have a Gorbachev. The past year's state of affairs showed that, Hu Jingtao does not really want major political reform. I lost hope for him.

Fang Jue: This gentleman from Anhui gave up his hope to Hu Jiangtao. This thought is quite representative of many Chinese towards the fourth generation of leaders.

I had told many western media back in 1998 when I was still in China. There is no such person like Gorbachev in the third generation of leaders headed by Jiang Zemin. At that time, western media hold high praises for Premier Zhu Rongji. But he also was not Gorbachev style leader. The reality after five years only proofed that.

People started to speculate weather Hu Jingtao would become China's Gorbachev. I think such speculation made Hu Jingtao quite frustrated. Because Mr. Hu not only does not want to be like Gorbachev, but also afraid people compare him with Gorbachev. I hope people would let Mr. Hu go easily.

Even if a Gorbachev appeared after Hu Jingtao, it would not be a lucky thing for China. This is already 21 century. The major body of communism had collapsed. The Cold War had ended. Gorbachev is the reform symbol of the Soviet Union from last century. If China's reform only matched former Soviet Union's reform in the 20 century, the speed is rather too slow. What China needs is a new reform model that would fit the 21 century's globalization of democracy and freedom.

Another audience from Anhui: After they took over the power, Hu and Wen indeed did some thing concerning people's hardship. The main purpose of that is still to maintain the one-party autocracy.

Fang Jue: Some of people in China pay more attention to Hu and Wen's concern towards people. We should see this concern from two perspectives. From one hand, they did that from humanitarian concern. Hu and Wen were born in common families. They used to work in one of the poorest provinces Gansu for a long time. They can easily relate to the people at the bottom of the society. On the other hand, as the professional bureaucrat trained by the communist system, they want to gain popular support by concerning for the mass. Mao Zedong emphasized that leaders should go to the people to learn their situations. Hu and Wen fully understand Mao Zedong's teaching. From that perspective, their concern for people is also to maintain and strengthen the communist ruling.

Audience from Shanghai: After Hu and Wen stepped to power, they have not pushed for political reform at all. I think we should not only rely on some individuals in the communist system to carry out reform. What China facing today is a total system rebuilt.

Fang Jue: I fully agree with this lady from Shanghai. Chinese Communist Party's reform has fall to the bottom already. They have reformed everything they possibly can reform. The remaining part is what they don't want to reform. Chinese Communist Party would completely reject to reform one-party ruling, including Hu Jiangtao. Chinese Communist Party would also reject privatization of the majority of the state-owned enterprises. Wen would refuse it as well. For China, the future reform should be put on system rebuilt. The core of the system rebuilt should be democracy and privatization. We can not keep doing small repairs.

Host: Where do you see the forces for system rebuilt might come from?

Fang Jue: It will come from three areas. First, the international pressure must be strong. Chinese Communist Party is not a party willing to change on its own. If there was no strong international pressure, they more willing to continuously follow the "Chinese characteristic socialist path". It would not mind to follow it for another one century. So the globalization of freedom and democracy has important effect on China's system rebuilt. Second, there must be a healthy opposition party. That opposition party needs to provide a new system framework to replace the old one. It needs to produce new democratic political leaders. Third, after the fourth generation of leaders, or ten years later, the more open-minded and younger fifth generation of leaders may emerge. Although they might not be able to promote democracy, even so they might acknowledge the need for democracy in China, there is a possibility for peaceful system rebuilt.

Host: Do you see the more open-minded fifth generation of leaders yet?

Fang Jue: I had been friends with some possible fifth generation of leaders for a long time. I know them fairly well. When there is a strong force for globalization on democracy and freedom, and when the need for democratic reform is popular in China, they might acknowledge the system change. The tragedy of 1989 in Tiananmen Square might not happen again. Of course, they are unwilling to take initiative to promote democracy. That will hurt some of their personal interests and the power base they rely on. So, I stress the three basic factors for China's system change, which are international pressure, opposition party and open-minded fifth generation of leaders. Only rely on one or two factors are not enough.

Host: The public have mixed feelings about the fifth generation of leaders. How do you view it?

Fang Jue: I have heard some controversial talks regarding this. I think the fifth generation of leaders is not a homogenous body. They come from different family back- ground; have different education and working experience. They also have different political views. Some of them are relatively open-minded, simple and upright. Some of them are opportunists. The latter had been the bus boy for the conservative third generation of leaders. Not all of the fifth generation of leaders will be accepted by the public or the international communities. The biggest challenge for the fifth generation of leaders will be weather they would accept the democratic transformation when the historic tide comes.

Audience from Fujian: China is a big country that has 1.3 billion people. Therefore the first priority for Chinese leaders is stability.

Fang Jue: This audience's comment reminds me of Mr. Wen's talk. Mr. Wen is about to visit the United States in early December. The Washington Post interviewed him a few days ago. During the not too long interview, Mr. Wen mentioned five times that China has a huge amount of population and stability is its first priority. As far as I am concern, it's not news that China has 1.3 billion people. You can not assume China would be unable to become democratic nation and carry out privatization just because it has 1.3 billion people. On the contrary, because its 1.3 billion population, China particularly needs a democratic system that can protect its citizen's civil rights and political rights. And it needs an economic system that can protect these 1.3 billion people's private property.

Another audience from Fujian: After Hu took over power, he has done a good job dealing the problems with the United States and Taiwan.

Fang Jue: This concerns different situations. After Hu took over power, there is no substantial improvement in Sino-US relationship. Mr.Hu has been keeping a low profile on Taiwan issue. This is a good thing. The main reason for that is Jiang Zemin is still the highest decision-maker on policy towards Taiwan behind the scene. Hu is just playing an assisting role in that arena.

Another audience from Jiangsu: When Hu can become the real highest leader of China? When is he going to have military power?

Fang Jue: As the political arrangement of the leader group of China, Jiang Zemin continues to "control behind the scene". In another words, Jiang Zeming's position of the Central Military Commission Chairman will maintain till Chinese Communist Party's 17th congress in 2007. Even after Jiang's full retirement after 2007, Hu probably still unable to do whatever he wanted. Because there will be many Jiang's supporters among the fourth generation of leadership.

Audience from Guangdong: China would not be able to become democratic nation during Hu Jingtao's time. Fang Jue: Mr. Hu is lack of the long term goal of China's democratic change and the policy framework that comes with the change.

Host: What is the biggest characteristic of Hu Jingtao and Wen Jiabao, as the two new main leaders of China?

Fang Jue: Their biggest characteristic may be both of them don't know how to consider from a bigger prospective. They were both engineers and came to power step by step from the lowest level. During the majority of their career, they never considered any- thing big. Now both of them are sixty-one years old. I doubt men in their sixties can started to learn how to consider big things. The system transformation is biggest task for contemporary China. It seems to do not fit their personalities. China's major hope is not within the fourth generation of leaders but after them.

Host: Do you think Hu Jiangtao and Wen Jiabao are the transitional stage between now and the future big change?

Fang Jue: I believe they are merely the transitional stage.

£¨END£© (boxun.com)