By HARVEY STOCKWINSpecial to The Japan Times

HONG KONG -- Since it is not opening up to the outside world, but remains a very closed society in terms of its internal politics, China raises more questions than it answers. The latest intriguing episode concerns the bugging of a Boeing 767-300ER purchased in 2000 to be the VIP jet for President Jiang Zemin and Vice President Hu Jintao.

This mysterious episode indicates that there may be some bumps in the road before the CCP's fourth generation can assume power, as predicted, at the 16th Party Congress in Beijing in October.

Only one certainty emerges from the tale that has been told so far, in leaks from Chinese sources to the Financial Times of London and The Washington Post: The once-respected practice of China-watching is very rusty.

China-watching is, of course, that devious art whereby foreigners try to interpret the smoke signals that occasionally emerge from the arcane world of Chinese political faction-fighting, and then to postulate what is really going on in a China wherein much crucial information is either restricted or not available.

The rustiness has shown through in the ease with which reporters and China "experts" have concluded that it was the U.S. government, or some branch of it, that planted the 27 bugs allegedly discovered in the jet, and that China has indicated its deep desire for improving Sino-American relations by neither protesting nor making a big issue out of this latest example of American spying.

Conceivably this may be what has happened, but it leaves out of account the obvious counter-question: If improving relations was the aim, why was the story of the bugged jet leaked by Chinese sources one month before U.S. President George W. Bush arrives in Beijing?

Two explanations suggest themselves. The Chinese government kept quiet for three months after the bugs were discovered, avoiding any mention of the affair to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, so that it could resurface the story now, and then react with obvious restraint, thereby ensuring that Bush would feel obligated to return the favor when he arrives for the February summit. This seems too contrived to be plausible.

Much more likely, the story has been leaked now because some group or faction wishes to weaken the Sino-American relationship by creating an embarrassing controversy just before the summit. Additionally, the motive behind the leak may have been to arouse chauvinistic nationalism. Such a nationalistic reaction would suit those Chinese, notably sections of the People's Liberation Army, who want to take a stronger posture toward the U.S., particularly over Taiwan, and who feel the Jiang administration has too often been weak.

It is also quite possible that the story was leaked primarily for domestic political reasons, with the aim being to embarrass and weaken the Jiang faction prior to the 16th Party Congress.

At a time when the CCP is attacking corruption, spending over $100 million on a luxuriously appointed Boeing 767 may seem excessive. The leaks carefully detailed the ways in which the interior fittings and upholstery were lavish. Significantly, earlier reports in Chinese newspapers had said that the Boeing 767 was being refitted by Chinese firms within China. Until now, it was never announced that the refit was being done by four American firms.

Thus all these disclosures by Chinese "official sources" to the Financial Times and Washington Post carry more than a hint of domestic opposition, within the CCP power elite, to the ruling factional coalition led by Jiang. Disclosures of investigations into possible negligence and corruption in the U.S. refit add to this adverse image of the whole project, as does the reported detention of 21 Chinese Air Force officers and some civilians.

The story so far suggests several reasons for doubting whether the bugging was in fact an American intelligence escapade. China assumed responsibility at the last minute for a plane originally manufactured by Boeing for Delta Airlines. There was no time for careful U.S. planning of such a caper, or installing bugs in the aircraft's frame.

The U.S. firms that did the refit all have reputations to lose, and all denied any participation in bugging. All four were hoping for future contracts from the Chinese.

The leaks aroused suspicion of American culpability by insisting that the technologically sophisticated bugs were of a type activated by satellites, and were not commercially available. The leak to the Financial Times diminished that suspicion by indicating that "the bugs were detected after the aircraft emitted a strange static whine during test flights in China in September." Were the U.S. to undertake such a high-risk operation, one rather expects that any strange static whines would first be eliminated.

The bugs were placed in upholstery, in the president's bed and in the toilet. There is a record of such activity in Chinese politics, as factions seek to discover what other factions are up to.

Most notably, the paranoia that led Chairman Mao Zedong to embark upon the destructive Cultural Revolution was partly stimulated by his discovery of bugs in his beds, in his railway train, in the provincial guest houses in which he stayed -- and even in his private room in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Harvey Stockwin broadcasts a weekly commentary, "Reflections From Asia," over Radio-TV Hongkong, and is East Asia correspondent for the Times of India.

The Japan Times: Feb. 4, 2002 (博讯boxun.com)